Heavy-duty truck market seen reaching $396.8 billion by 2035

The global heavy-duty truck market is projected to grow from $234.1 billion in 2025 to $396.8 billion by 2035, driven by freight growth, tighter emissions rules and fleet renewal. The shift is also reshaping buying decisions as operators weigh total cost of ownership, charging access and residual value risk.

Why it matters: - Heavy-duty trucks sit at the center of freight, construction and commodity supply chains, so changes in this market affect shipping capacity, fleet costs and emissions across multiple industries. - The market is growing while its technology base is shifting toward zero-emission propulsion, which changes procurement, infrastructure needs and long-term fleet planning. - Operators are now weighing total cost of ownership, fuel-pathway uncertainty and residual value risk, not just replacement timing.

What happened: - Market Research Future projects the global Heavy Duty Trucks Market will rise from $234.10 billion in 2025 to $396.80 billion by 2035. - The forecast implies a 5.65% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, starting from an estimated $246.40 billion in 2026. - The main growth drivers are freight tonnage expansion and fleet renewal tied to tightening emissions rules in the EU, China and North America. - The release also highlights a shift toward zero-emission propulsion as the market’s technological foundation changes.

The details: - Diesel trucks held an 88.5% share of the market in 2025 and remain the default for long-haul work because of range, refueling speed and service coverage. - Battery-electric tractors are the fastest-growing propulsion segment, with a projected 35.20% CAGR through 2035. - Hydrogen fuel-cell platforms generated $3.20 billion in 2025 and are positioned for long-haul routes where battery weight and charging time are constraints. - Class 8 vehicles accounted for 73.0% of revenue in 2025, reflecting tractor-trailer line-haul demand. - Class 7 vehicles are the fastest-growing class at a 7.85% CAGR through 2035, helped by urban distribution and vocational use cases. - Freight and logistics generated $130.40 billion in 2025, the largest application segment. - Construction and mining held 21.0% of market share in 2025. - Other vocational applications are forecast to grow at an 11.65% CAGR. - OEM first-purchase transactions are growing at a 13.10% CAGR, the fastest sales channel. - The used and aftermarket channel retained a 27.0% share. - The top five OEMs are estimated to control 55% to 62% of global revenue. - Key companies include Daimler Truck, Traton Group, Volvo Group, PACCAR, Dongfeng Motor, FAW Jiefang, Tata Motors, Isuzu Motors and Nikola Corporation. - Ask for Sample PDF: Sample request - Ask for the Customization: Customization request - Read More Premium Research Insights in Detail: Heavy-duty trucks market report

Between the lines: - Emissions regulation is no longer just a compliance issue; it is forcing fleets to refresh sooner and manufacturers to prove zero-emission roadmaps. - The EU’s revised heavy-duty CO2 rules, adopted in May 2024, set fleet-average reduction targets of 45% by 2030, 65% by 2035 and 90% by 2040 versus a 2019 baseline. - The updated EU rule broadened coverage to almost all new heavy-duty vehicles with certified CO2 emissions, including smaller trucks, buses, coaches, trailers and vocational vehicles. - The EU Council adopted compliance flexibility in March 2026 to let manufacturers accumulate emission credits from 2025 to 2029. - Trucks and buses make up about 2% of EU vehicles but generate more than 25% of road transport greenhouse gas emissions. - California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule requires manufacturers of Class 2b through Class 8 vehicles to sell increasing shares of zero-emission vehicles starting with model year 2024. - By 2035, ACT targets reach 55% for Class 2b-3 trucks, 75% for Class 4-8 straight trucks and 40% for Class 7-8 tractors. - Seven states have adopted ACT, covering roughly 22% of the U.S. truck market. - Freight growth is still the market’s biggest demand engine, with U.S. truck tonnage projected to rise from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons by 2035. - Trucking is projected to keep about 72.7% of U.S. freight tonnage and 76.9% of freight revenue in 2024. - The American Trucking Associations and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast trucking industry revenues rising from about $906 billion in 2024 to $1.46 trillion by 2035. - Driver shortages are also pushing technology adoption, including telematics, driver-assist systems and autonomous platooning. - The American Trucking Associations projects a driver shortfall of about 82,000 in 2026, rising from 78,000 in 2024. - The shortage could exceed 160,000 by 2030 if current trends continue. - MRFR estimates freight volume growth contributes about 24% to the market’s CAGR, while emissions regulation contributes about 21% and labor constraints about 17% as a restraining force. - Charging and refueling gaps are estimated to have the largest negative CAGR impact at about 28%. - High upfront cost remains a barrier for zero-emission trucks, especially for smaller fleets with thin margins.

What’s next: - Battery-electric trucks are most likely to expand first on return-to-base regional routes, where depot charging and predictable mileage make the economics work. - Hydrogen fuel-cell trucks are expected to gain traction on long-haul corridors as refueling networks and green hydrogen supply mature. - OEMs that bundle vehicles, charging hardware and energy management could capture more fleet share during the transition. - Connected fleet software is likely to become a larger revenue stream through telematics, predictive maintenance and route optimization. - Fleet ESG reporting and Scope 3 pressure are expected to increase demand for verified emissions data and lifecycle analytics. - BloombergNEF expects zero-emission models to capture a rising double-digit share of new heavy-truck sales by the early 2030s. - The International Energy Agency sees fuel-cell trucks complementing batteries once corridor networks and hydrogen costs improve in Europe and Northeast Asia.

The bottom line: - Heavy-duty trucks are moving into a decade defined by freight growth, stricter regulation and a contested powertrain transition, with the biggest gains likely to go to OEMs and fleets that can solve cost, charging and uptime together.